Flag Pattern in SPX

The eyes of many traders are glued to the 'flag' or pennant' pattern forming in the SPX. Among the traders that I follow, it seems that most anticipate an upside resolution to the pattern.

Classic technical analysis says that chance favors resolution the direction of the previously prevailing trend. Yes, we've rallied off the early October lows, suggesting that the prevailing trend is up.

A counter view is that we've been experiencing only a bear market rally since October. A broader time horizon suggests a series of 'lower highs' since spring--in which case the primary trend could be interpreted as down.

In any event, we should get an answer pretty soon...

position in SPX