Durable Rally, or Short Term Relief?

If we were to assign news-related causes to today' 2-3% stock market rally, it would probably be a blend of better than expected Black Friday sales plus the spectre of (another) Euro bailout. Of course, we learned today that a) the IMF had no Italian bailout program in motion, and b) last week's retail sales numbers may be greatly exaggerated.

So perhaps today's move is just one more rally to blow off some near term selling pressure.

Technically, an upside move 'works' to SPX 1220.

Other technical evidence, however, is not in synch with a sustained upside move. After an early move lower, Treasuries recovered most of the day's losses. Bank stocks gave up a big chunk of their early gains. The dollar also closed near even after early selling. Oil closed near its lows.

Hard not to view these 'divergences' with some skepticism about the prospects for big upside from here. Time will tell, of course.

Personally, I did a whole lot of nuttin' today. Will likely put back on some of the incremental short exposure ditched last week should prices continue higher toward 1220. Other than that, I continue to be active in the physical metals market, buying both gold and silver.

position in SPX, gold, silver