Treasury Yields Not Following Stocks

Usually, when market participants are ready to take on risk, they sell bonds and buy stocks. When bonds get sold, their yields go higher. Thus, higher stock prices and bond yields are often positively correlated.

Not this time--at least so far.

As stocks have lifted over the past few weeks, bond yields have not done the same. Ten yr Treasury yields are approaching mid December lows at ~1.8%.

This suggests that there is still lots of deleveraging behind the scenes--investors are swapping risky assets (perhaps assets grounded in Europe) for the safety in US Treasuries.

Stock bulls will argue that this is a positive. "Imagine what will happen to stocks when this pocket of 'de-risking' is past. Demand for stocks will swamp supply!"

Stock bears will argue that this is a negative. "Imagine what will happen to equities when this pocket of stock buying is past. Supply of stocks will swamp demand!"

And so it goes...

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